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Economic Commentary Credit Trends

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Copyright © 2017, Equifax Inc., Atlanta, Georgia. All rights reserved. Equifax and EFX are registered trademarks of Equifax Inc. 17-6110 CONTACT US wyatt.jefferies@equifax.com 404-885-8907 equifax.com/business Deeper dives into auto lending in other research we've recently completed 11 indicate that most lenders (banks, credit unions and captive auto finance companies) have maintained very tight lending standards and have great performance to show for it, while independent, monoline and dealer finance companies 12 have been more aggressive and show worsening performance. The majority of auto loans are doing very well. The weakening credit card performance may be indicative of turning tides, but the delinquency rates are still quite low. We will continue to watch their performance. Parting Thoughts The focus of this study is recession risk from normal ebbs and flows of consumption and investment, and what we might learn from recent trends in credit markets. Policy risk, whether domestic or foreign, is impossible to gauge. Domestic fiscal stimulus, for example from comprehensive infrastructure spending, would be a boost to growth, but it isn't free. Depending on how the money is raised to pay for it, such spending could create greater recession risk on net rather than less. Foreign events could also create economic stress at home and are nearly always unexpected. We occasionally get asked where to find timely originations data. We publish this information in the Quarterly U.S. Consumer Credit Trends on the Equifax website in the Investor Relations section: https://investor.equifax.com/news-and-events/events- and-presentations (past events section) on a quarterly basis after Equifax releases its earnings results. Additionally, more detailed monthly reports are available to Equifax Credit Trends and Moody's Analytics Credit Forecast 5.0 subscribers. If you are interested in these reports please contact your Equifax sales representative. The opinions, estimates and forecasts presented herein are for general information use only. This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. No person should consider distribution of this material as making any representation or warranty with respect to such material and should not rely upon it as such. Equifax does not assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. The opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the Economic Insights group of Equifax represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Equifax or its management. 11 Equifax infographic, "What's Happening with Subprime Auto Loans?" http://www.visualcapitalist.com/subprime-auto-loans/ (accessed July 17, 2017) 12 Captive auto finance companies are associated with an auto manufacturer, independent finance companies offer auto and other loan types, while monoline finance companies focus on auto loans through multiple dealers and platforms. Dealer finance companies are associated with dealerships or dealer networks

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